Search results for "Hazard analysis"

Effects of different boundary conditions and palaeotopographies on the onshore response of tsunamis in a numerical model – A case study from western …

2016

Abstract Hydrodynamic numerical models are essential in modern tsunami hazard assessment. They allow the economical simulation of possible tsunami scenarios for areas at risk and provide reliable and detailed insights into local onshore dynamics. This is especially true when simulations are calibrated with field traces of past tsunami inundation events. Following this approach, the current study focuses on palaeotsunami events indicated by sedimentary and geomorphological field traces in the northern Gulf of Kyparissia (NW Greece). Based on three different digital elevation models (DEM) – reflecting the recent and two palaeotopographies – various tsunami wave constellations according to the…

Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Sal…

2021

The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (∼2.4 million people) and Managua (∼1.4 million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale…

The tsunami phenomenon

2017

Abstract With human activity increasingly concentrating on coasts, tsunamis (from Japanese tsu = harbour, nami = wave) are a major natural hazard to today’s society. Stimulated by disastrous tsunami impacts in recent years, for instance in south-east Asia (2004) or in Japan (2011), tsunami science has significantly flourished, which has brought great advances in hazard assessment and mitigation plans. Based on tsunami research of the last decades, this paper provides a thorough treatise on the tsunami phenomenon from a geoscientific point of view. Starting with the wave features, tsunamis are introduced as long shallow water waves or wave trains crossing entire oceans without major energy l…

A multisite-cooperative research programme on risk assessment of transgenic crops

1999

Genetically modified plants are now being commercialised in several countries as regulatory authorities consider that the balance of risk versus benefit is beneficial. However, numerous questions remain unanswered, especially the impact of these plants when used over large areas and under a range of variable environmental conditions. Some issues need to be re-evaluated [1, 2]. Risk/safety analysis, as well as prospects of transgenic crops depend on the scale which is to be considered. Extrapolation of methods, and laboratory and greenhouse results, to large-scale farmers’ fields, may provide useful preliminary data, but is not a sound approach to the study of the consequences of the commerc…

Evaluation of viability PCR performance for assessing norovirus infectivity in fresh-cut vegetables and irrigation water

2016

Norovirus (NoV) detection in food and water is mainly carried out by quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR). The inability to differentiate between infectious and inactivated viruses and the resulting overestimation of viral targets is considered a major disadvantage of RT-qPCR. Initially, conventional photoactivatable dyes (i.e. propidium monoazide, PMA and ethidium monoazide, EMA) and newly developed ones (i.e. PMAxx and PEMAX) were evaluated for the discrimination between infectious and thermally inactivated NoV genogroup I (GI) and II (GII) suspensions. Results showed that PMAxx was the best photoactivatable dye to assess NoV infectivity. This procedure was further optimized in artificially inoc…

Strategies investigation in using artificial neural network for landslide susceptibility mapping: application to a Sicilian catchment

2013

Susceptibility assessment of areas prone to landsliding remains one of the most useful approaches in landslide hazard analysis. The key point of such analysis is the correlation between the physical phenomenon and its triggering factors based on past observations. Many methods have been developed in the scientific literature to capture and model this correlation, usually within a geographic information system (GIS) framework. Among these, the use of neural networks, in particular the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) networks, has provided successful results. A successful application of the MLP method to a basin area requires the definition of different model strategies, such as the sample selec…

Rockfall hazard assessment of the Monte Gallo Oriented Nature Reserve area (Southern Italy)

2021

Abstract The Monte Gallo area is a carbonate relief that develops a significant nature reserve and highly attracts tourism to the urbanized area of the City of Palermo (Southern Italy). The slopes are affected by several rockfall events, which have also caused death, injuries, material damage, and a strong social and economic impact. Here, a detailed geological and geotechnical study to assess the rockfall hazard relating to two sectors of the mount has been carried out. The hazard assessment at the slope scale was performed based on geological, geomorphological, geomechanical, and seismic analysis. Using both analytical and empirical methods and by means of different software, the reconstr…

A review of the application of the hazard analysis and critical control point system to salads served in the restaurant of Valencia University

2005

Prevalence of bacteria and absence of anisakid parasites in raw and prepared fish and seafood dishes in Spanish restaurants

2015

This study evaluated the presence of bacteria and anisakid parasites in 45 samples of raw anchovies in vinegar, a dish widely eaten in Spain, and in 227 samples of cooked fish and cephalopods served in Spanish food service establishments. Our analysis showed that, according to European and Spanish regulation, 14 to 30% of the prepared fish and cephalopod dishes exceeded the maximum allowable level for mesophilic aerobic counts, and 10 to 40% of these samples exceeded the allowable levels for Enterobacteriaceae. None of the studied samples showed evidence of anisakid parasites, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella, or Listeria monocyto genes. These results indicate that applic…

PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES

2015

This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology combines: (i) mathematical modeling of volcanic mass flows; (ii) field data of avalanche frequency, volume, and runout; (iii) large-scale numerical simulations of flow events; (iv) use of statistical methods to minimize computational costs, and to capture unlikely events; (v) calculation of the probability of a catastrophic flow event over the next T years at a location of interest; and (vi) innovative computational methodology to implement these methods. This unified presentation collects elements that have been separately developed, and incorporates new contri…